OVK Weighbridge, 18 June 2020

• In their June Crop Report, Conab lowered their estimate of the 2019/20 Brazilian maize crop by 1.3 MMT to a total of 100.9 MMT. They lowered their estimate of the safrinha maize production by 1.6 MMT to a total of 74.2 MMT due to dry weather in the southern production areas.
• According to the Rosario grains exchange, the dryness in Argentina's central agricultural region threatening to derail expectations that farmers will plant a record 7 million hectares of wheat in 2020/21. The country is a leading wheat exporter and if its planting area estimates is achieved, it could produce a record crop of 22 MMT.
• According to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange, Argentina's 2019/20 soybean harvest is estimated at 49.6 MMT, which is slightly higher than previously estimated 49.5 MMT. The country is the world's leading exporter of soymeal livestock feed and a major supplier of raw soybeans.

News for the week

Maize

International maize prices traded slightly higher this past week with strong exports and higher ethanol production in the US supporting prices. For the week that ended 12 June 2020, the US produced 841 000 barrels of ethanol, which is higher than 837 000 barrels of ethanol produced the week before.

The condition of the 2020 US maize crop decreased by 4% last week to 71% rated good to excellent. Six states shown that the maize condition improved last week, 11 states shown that the maize condition declined last week and 2 were unchanged. Most of the improvements were found in the eastern and southern locations while most of the declines were found in the central and western locations.

In their June Crop Report, Conab lowered their estimate of the 2019/20 Brazilian maize crop by 1.3 MMT to a total of 100.9 MMT. They lowered their estimate of the safrinha maize production by 1.6 MMT to a total of 74.2 MMT due to dry weather in the southern production areas.

However, Brazilian maize exports will resume during the second half of 2020 with Brazil estimating to export approximately 30 MMT of maize. The local demand for maize in the country should also support prices during the second half of the year. The livestock sector remains active due to strong demand for meat exports, especially from China. Additionally, a significant amount of ethanol in Brazil is now produced from maize and while ethanol demand declined by 40% due to the Covid-19 pandemic, it is expected to pick up later the year, therefore further supporting maize prices.

South African (SA) maize prices traded higher for White Maize and Yellow Maize for July 2020 and September 2020 this past week due to weaker ZAR and higher international prices.

Wheat

US wheat prices traded lower this past week with Kansas wheat prices leading the way lower. US Kansas wheat prices traded lower than Chicago wheat prices in the past week with the harvesting of winter wheat adding some price pressure. The harvesting tempo is in line with the 5-year average.

According to the Rosario grains exchange, the dryness in Argentina's central agricultural region threatening to derail expectations that farmers will plant a record 7 million hectares of wheat in 2020/21. The country is a leading wheat exporter and if its planting area estimates is achieved, it could produce a record crop of 22 MMT.

FranceAgriMer increased its estimates for French soft wheat exports outside the EU to a record volume as brisk shipments continued in the concluding stages of the season. In a monthly supply and demand outlook FranceAgriMer increased its estimate of soft wheat exports outside the EU in the 2019/20 season to a total of 13.45 MMT from 13.3 MMT seen last month.

Strategie Grains decreased its estimate for the 2020 soft wheat harvest in the EU, stating that an expected hot, dry spring could have damaged crops before rains begin again in June. Strategie Grains lowered its estimate of 2020 soft wheat production in the EU and Britain to 130.9 MMT, which is 2 MMT lower than its May estimate and now 11% below last year's production estimates.

According to Germany’s association of farm cooperatives, the country’s 2020 wheat crop is expected to decrease to 22.21 MMT. This estimate is slightly lower than the 22.38 MMT it estimated in May as some crops suffered from dry springtime weather.

According to a Reuters Poll, wheat exports from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan is expected hold steady in 2020/21, due to a larger crop in Russia and Kazakhstan, making competition easier with the EU, where production estimates was recently lowered.

South African (SA) wheat prices traded higher this past week with July 2020 and September 2020 due to the weaker ZAR.

 Soybeans

International soybean prices traded slightly higher this past week with buying demand from China still increasing, however the large volumes of soybeans being exported by Brazil is applying pressure to prices.

The condition of the 2020 US Soybean crop held steady at 72% rated good to excellent. Eight states shown that the soybean condition improved last week, eleven states shown that the soybean condition declined last week. Most of the improvements were found in the eastern and southern locations while most of the declines were found in the central and western locations.

According to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange, Argentina's 2019/20 soybean harvest is estimated at 49.6 MMT, which is slightly higher than previously estimated 49.5 MMT. The country is the world's leading exporter of soymeal livestock feed and a major supplier of raw soybeans.

According to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), US soybean crushing decreased by 1.3% in May, missing most analyst estimates, with end-of-month soyoil stocks also decreasing from a near seven-year high. NOPA has stated that members, crushed 169.584 million bushels (4.615 MMT) of soybeans last month, which is lower than the 171.754 million bushels (4.674 MMT) crushed in April but is higher than the 154.796 million bushels (4.212 MMT) crushed in May 2019.

South African (SA) soybean prices traded higher this past week with July 2020 and September 2020 to weaker ZAR and higher international prices.