OVK Weighbridge, 2 July 2020

The Weekly Weighbridge

2 July 2020

Important facts for the week

•             According to the SAGIS weekly producer deliveries report for the week that ended on 2020/06/26, maize deliveries in South Africa for the 2020/21 harvest season have reached a total of 1 867 572 MT for White Maize and 2 660 780 MT for Yellow Maize.

•             The International Grains Council (IGC) increased its estimates for global wheat production in the 2020/21 season by 2 MMT to 768 MMT, with increased production for Australia and China offsetting a decreased production for the EU region.

•             According to customs data from the General Administration of Customs, China's soybean imports from Brazil soared in May 2020 to their highest in two years, as backed-up cargoes that were delayed by bad weather in Brazil cleared customs. China, the world's top soybean importer, brought in 8.86 MMT of Brazilian soybeans in May 2020, which is the highest since May 2018 and 41% more from last year's 6.3 MMT. 

News for the week

 Maize

International maize prices traded higher this past week with US maize prices trading sharply higher in the session yesterday following the release of the USDA acreage report with the 2020 US maize area planted estimated well below the market expectations. However, the US maize crop conditions did improve last week but the weather forecast expects some warmer and drier conditions in the US Midwest in the week ahead.

The condition of the 2020 US maize crop increased by 1% last week to 73% rated good to excellent. Ten states shown that the maize condition improved last week while 8 states shown that the maize condition declined last week. Most of the improvements were found in the eastern and southern areas while most of the declines were found in the western and northern areas.

According to the SAGIS weekly producer deliveries report for the week that ended on 2020/06/26, maize deliveries in South Africa for the 2020/21 harvest season have reached a total of 1 867 572 MT for White Maize and 2 660 780 MT for Yellow Maize.

According to the SAGIS weekly import/export report for the week that ended on 2020/06/26, white maize exports for the 2020/21 harvest season have reached a total of 162 299 MT, with 88 065 MT exported to Zimbabwe and 36 535 MT exported to Botswana. Yellow maize exports for the 2020/21 harvest season have reached a total of 316 778 MT, with 106 450 MT exported to Taiwan, 111 764 MT exported to Korea and 44 775 exported to Japan.

South African (SA) maize prices traded higher for White Maize and Yellow Maize for July 2020 and September 2020 this past week due to higher international prices.

Wheat

US wheat prices traded lower this past week with the US wheat prices trading lower due to the harvesting of winter wheat and increasing global supply adding some price pressure. The recent dollar strength is another factor that added some price pressure for wheat.

The International Grains Council (IGC) increased its estimates for global wheat production in the 2020/21 season by 2 MMT to 768 MMT, with increased production for Australia and China offsetting a decreased production for the EU region.

The European Commission decreased its estimate for the soft wheat harvest in the EU again, lowering expected production to a total of 117.2 MMT from a total of 121.5 MMT estimated a month ago. The estimate production of soft wheat in the 2020/21 season would now be more than 10% below last year's crop of 130.9 MMT.

According to FranceAgriMer, the condition of French soft wheat was stable last week with 56% of crops rated good or excellent by 22 June 2020. That marked the fourth week in a row in which the good/excellent rating for soft wheat has been unchanged, suggesting rain and moderate temperatures this month brought some relief to crops after a very dry spring.

According to Agritel, Ukrainian wheat production could decrease to a total of 26.25 MMT this year due to a lower planting area and significant damage in southern regions after a lengthy drought. Agritel's crop estimate, which followed a field tour in Ukraine during the month of June 2020, is above a Reuters poll average of 25.4 MMT released 11 June 2020, but close to grain traders' union UGA's estimate last week of 26.5 MMT.

South African (SA) wheat prices traded mixed this past week with July 2020 trading higher and September 2020 trading lower due to the stronger ZAR and lower international prices.

Soybeans

US soybean prices traded higher this past week after the release of the USDA acreage and stocks report with the lower than expected US new crop soybean area planted supporting prices. However, the US soybean crop conditions did improve last week but the weather forecast expects some warmer and drier conditions in the US Midwest in the week ahead.

The condition of the 2020 US Soybean crop increased by 1% last week to 71% rated good to excellent. Ten states shown that the soybean condition improved last week while 8 states shown that the soybean condition declined last week. Most of the improvements were found in the eastern and southern areas while most of the declines were found in the western and northern areas.

According to customs data from the General Administration of Customs, China's soybean imports from Brazil soared in May 2020 to their highest in two years, as backed-up cargoes that were delayed by bad weather in Brazil cleared customs. China, the world's top soybean importer, brought in 8.86 MMT of Brazilian soybeans in May 2020, which is the highest since May 2018 and 41% more from last year's 6.3 MMT.

According to a Reuters Poll, the May 2020 US soybean crush is expected to decrease to 5.421 MMT (180.7 million bushels), ahead of a monthly USDA report. Estimates ranged from 180.0 million bushels to 182.0 million bushels, with a median of 180.5 million bushels.

South African (SA) soybean prices traded higher this past week with July 2020 and September 2020 his past week due to higher international prices.