Seisoenale Voorspelling

Overview

There is no indication that increased rainfall activities will occur during the spring (Sep-Oct-Nov) season for the south western parts of the country. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM), which is in a strong positive phase and predicted to remain positive in the coming weeks, adds to this assessment, because a positive phase usually indicates that frontal systems are less likely to reach South Africa.

Given the current strain on water resources in the south-western parts of the country and seemingly no significant rainfall activities during spring, it is recommended that the current drought measures (which are already in place) continue for the foreseeable future.

Forecasts however do indicate that there is an increased chance for above-normal rainfall between spring and late spring (Oct-Nov-Dec) over the north-eastern parts of the country. Conditions over the Indian Ocean promotes this forecast; however, there are indications that these conditions may start to moderate during late spring.

Furthermore, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is now likely to have no specific influence over the coming summer months over South Africa. In addition, as the current and predicted state of ENSO is for neutral conditions, there is currently no confident forecast that can be made for the forthcoming summer rainfall.

Temperatures are expected to be largely above normal for most parts of the country during the spring and early summer periods.

The South African Weather Service will continue its dissemination of any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming seasons