OVK Weighbridge, 9 July

The Weekly Weighbridge

09 July 2020

Important facts for the week

According to the SAGIS weekly producer deliveries report for the week that ended on 2020/07/03, maize deliveries in South Africa for the 2020/21 harvest season have reached a total of 2 447 982 MT for White Maize and 3 160 107 MT for Yellow Maize

IKAR decreased its estimate for the Russian 2020 grain crop by 2 MMT to a total of 126 MMT due to low yields in part of the country's southern and central regions. Its estimate for Russia's 2020 wheat crop was decreased by 1.5 MMT to a total of 78 MMT.

In their July Crop Report, Conab increased the 2019/20 Brazilian soybean estimate by 0.4 MMT from the June estimate to a total of 120.8 MMT. The Brazilian soybean production is now 5.1% larger than the 115.0 MMT produced in 2018/19. The soybean hectares have increased by 3.0% in 2019/20 to 36.94 million hectares.

News for the week

Maize

International maize prices traded slightly higher this past week with US maize prices trading higher due to the lower new crop area estimate and the drier conditions expected in the US Midwest.

The condition of the 2020 US maize crop decreased by 2% last week to 71% rated good to excellent. Nine states shown that the maize condition improved last week while eight states shown that the maize condition declined last week and one state was left unchanged. Most of the improvements were found in the northern and southern areas while most of the declines were found in the eastern and western areas.

According to the SAGIS weekly producer deliveries report for the week that ended on 2020/07/03, maize deliveries in South Africa for the 2020/21 harvest season have reached a total of 2 447 982 MT for White Maize and 3 160 107 MT for Yellow Maize.

According to the SAGIS weekly import/export report for the week that ended on 2020/07/23, white maize exports for the 2020/21 harvest season have reached a total of 224 270 MT, with 111 447 MT exported to Zimbabwe, 40 887 MT exported to Botswana, 20 014 MT exported to Ethiopia, 20 688 MT exported to Mozambique. Yellow maize exports for the 2020/21 harvest season have reached a total of 412 037 MT, with 158 939 MT exported to Taiwan, 133 889 MT exported to Korea and 52 470 MT exported to Japan.

South African (SA) maize prices traded slightly higher for White Maize and Yellow Maize this past week due to slightly higher international prices however the stronger ZAR applied some pressure to maize prices and offset the slightly higher international prices.

Wheat

US wheat prices traded higher this past week due lower expected global stocks due to lower production estimated for the new season in Russia, France and Ukraine.

Unfavourable growing conditions is putting the EU and Britain on course for a 10% decrease in wheat production this year, with weather swings creating more uncertainty as harvests start. The EU and Britain are expected to harvest a total of 131.3 MMT of soft wheat in 2020.

According to agriculture consultancies IKAR and SovEcon, Russian wheat exports will decrease in July 2020 after a slow start to the harvest but will increase in later months when there will not be export quotas. Russia, which competes with the EU, Ukraine and others to supply Africa and the Middle East, began harvesting wheat late this year. Yields have been lower thus far but are expected to improve.

IKAR decreased its estimate for the Russian 2020 grain crop by 2 MMT to a total of 126 MMT due to low yields in part of the country's southern and central regions. Its estimate for Russia's 2020 wheat crop was decreased by 1.5 MMT to a total of 78 MMT.

According to the French farm ministry, the country’s soft wheat production is expected to decrease by almost 21% this year after crops suffered from adverse weather conditions. In its first estimate of this year's soft wheat crop, the ministry estimated production at 31.31 MMT compared with 39.55 MMT in 2019.

FranceAgriMer increased its estimate for 2019/20 French soft wheat exports outside the EU to a new record high but upcoming shipment would decrease sharply in the new season on the back of a much smaller harvest. For the 2019/20 season FranceAgriMer estimated soft wheat exports to non-EU destinations at 13.6 MMT, compared with 13.45 MMT estimated last month and 41% above the 2018/19 level.

South African (SA) wheat prices traded higher this past week with July 2020 and September 2020 both trading higher. The inverse prices dynamics and the ZAR are currently the main factors influencing the wheat prices.

Soybeans

International soybean prices traded sideways this past week with US soybean prices trading sideways with the drier conditions expected in the US Midwest.

The condition of the 2020 US Soybean crop was left unchanged last week to 70% rated good to excellent. Ten states shown that the soybean condition improved last week while seven states shown that the soybean condition declined last week and one state was left unchanged. Most of the improvements were found in the northern and southern areas while most of the declines were found in the eastern and western areas.

With fewer than eight weeks left in the 2019-20 US marketing year and soybean exports appear more likely to meet the USDA estimate than those for corn. US soybean exports are seen hitting six-year lows in 2019-20, however the exact volumes will be important for setting the starting supply levels for 2020-21, which begins on 1 September 2020.

In their July Crop Report, Conab increased the 2019/20 Brazilian soybean estimate by 0.4 MMT from the June estimate to a total of 120.8 MMT. The Brazilian soybean production is now 5.1% larger than the 115.0 MMT produced in 2018/19. The soybean hectares have increased by 3.0% in 2019/20 to 36.94 million hectares

South African (SA) soybean prices traded higher this past week despite the sideways trading international prices and stronger ZAR.