Seasonal Climate Watch

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has in the last month drastically developed in a cool phase, and predictions now indicate a likelihood of a moderate La Niña to be in effect during late summer (Jan-Feb-Mar). The circulation over the equatorial Pacific Ocean also seems to have responded to the late evolution of a La Niña and might impact South Africa’s late summer-rainfall regions. In agreement with this assessment is the late summer-rainfall predictions, indicating that the far north-eastern parts of South Africa as well as parts of the interior are likely to receive above-normal rainfall in late summer.

Potential flooding events then remain a concern through late summer; however, late summer above-normal rainfall tends to be more frequent rather than more intense. It is advised that early-warning systems from the South African Weather Service be followed throughout the summer season.

Lower temperatures on average are also expected throughout the late summer period, as consistent cloud cover and rainfall events are expected to be more dominant than usual. In contrast however, the south-western parts of the country are still expected to experience higher temperatures on average and possibilities for hot spells are more likely during this time.

The South African Weather Service will continue to monitor and provide updates of any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming seasons.